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Flu is renowned for its unpredictability. Several pandemics (including the 1918 disaster, most experts believe) started with a mild first wave, followed by a much worse later wave. It won’t greatly surprise anyone in the know if this pandemic turns more serious, even massively more serious—including the true worst case scenario: a reassortment with H5N1 (the possible pandemic we were talking about in 2006), which has a 60 percent case fatality rate but so far hasn’t learned efficient human-to-human transmission. Officials are overstating how serious the pandemic is currently and understating how serious it could get, almost as if they were averaging the two." from http://www.nieman.harvard.edu/Microsites/NiemanGuideToCoveringPande...
The last flu pandemic was greately exaggerated specially in Mexico. My guess this last paragraph explains the logic behind it.
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