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"Flu is renowned for its unpredictability. Several pandemics (including the 1918 disaster, most experts believe) started with a mild first wave, followed by a much worse later wave. It won’t greatly surprise anyone in the know if this pandemic turns more serious, even massively more serious—including the true worst case scenario: a reassortment with H5N1 (the possible pandemic we were talking about in 2006), which has a 60 percent case fatality rate but so far hasn’t learned efficient human-to-human transmission. Officials are overstating how serious the pandemic is currently and understating how serious it could get, almost as if they were averaging the two." from http://www.nieman.harvard.edu/Microsites/NiemanGuideToCoveringPande...

The last flu pandemic was greately exaggerated specially in Mexico. My guess this last paragraph explains the logic behind it.

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Comment by Sarah Shaw Tatoun on May 2, 2010 at 8:58pm
Patricio-- I was traveling at the height of the swine flu scare. It was fascinating to see how differently the countries reacted. In Russia we didn't hear anything at all about swine flu. Then, on the Russian/Mongolian border everyone was buying face masks. In Ulan Batur, people were sending their children out of the city and all the concerts and other large gatherings of people were canceled. Restaurants and other public places were put under a 9 pm curfew. Once we crossed into China, although we continued to see face masks there didn't seem to be any great concern. There was never any suggestion that public places be closed or their hours curtailed. The same was true in Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia.

What I think is that, while it's true we will probably have a serious pandemic again at some point, focusing on it is absurd considering the millions of children that are allowed to die every year from easily prevented illnesses. The media should spend much more of its time talking about the actions we can take in this area and stop speculating about the someday-maybe problems we may face in the future.
Comment by Patricio Buenrostro-Gilhuys on May 2, 2010 at 9:11pm
Hi Sarah- That´s what I love about traveling. Opinions of millions of people on exactly the same issue can be entirely different depending on the country. The entire economy of Mexico stopped for a couple of weeks or more. Every business, school, everything closed. If the pandemic had been stronger then does measures could have helped. But same as you do I wonder why curable preventible diseases are not attacked with the same strength as swine flu.

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