Urgent Evoke

A crash course in changing the world.

Peak Oil, or Houston we have a problem !

Dear Evoke Agents,


Let’s look at more Research and relevant Theory!


Let’s now have a look now at Peak Oil or Houston we have a problem!


Since the first major discoveries of oil fields more than a century ago, most of the world has been able to enjoy a level of economic growth like never in the past. Oil is a very efficient source of energy; produces a lot of energy per cost, easy to transport, and was easy to find, until recently. We now realize that the easy discoveries are behind us, that the barrels that were cheap to produce are gone. There is still a lot of oil in the ground. Many discoveries are still possible. The problem is that we are now burning oil discovered decades ago, that most new discoveries will be in areas less easily available, and that the marginal cost to produce the next billion of barrels can only go up.


This situation is not new, Dr. Marion King Hubbert, a Shell geologist, accurately predicted in 1956 that the domestic US production would peak in 1970. He also predicted that the global production of oil would peak around the year 2000. Because of his research, peak oil is also called Hubbert’s Peak.


Three pictures are worth 3000 words:


http://xtof.ouvaton.org/wakka.php?wiki=PeakOil

http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/30/obama-detroit-gm-fuel-efficie...

http://drmills.wiki-site.com/index.php/Peak_Oil_Preparation


Also have a look at You Tube:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ulxe1ie-vEY


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHKp5vF_VoE


So here we are, in need of a sustainable solution!


I will be back later with some ideas to help reducing the negative impacts of peak oil.


For now, let’s look at more Research and relevant Theory! We are still in the learning process!


Please take a minute to comment and support

Views: 25

Comment by Michele Baron on March 18, 2010 at 2:31am
I love how they say that since the peak of production has been lost, there will be more smoke than fire--I don't like the implications, though. We certainly do need a sustainable solution. I had read somewhere that the Chinese were farming oil out of the sandy plains in Canada--is this still ongoing? Canada has such huge plains and, although a northern aspect, decent solar intensities in-season; it seems a heliostat (solar updraft tower) wind combo might be good additions to grid systems? Thanks for the fun links and good info.
Comment by Sylvain Ratelle on March 18, 2010 at 10:57am
Hello Michele, Yes we are very active in the oil sands, more and more in fact, as it takes years to build and costs billions, I will be back with that over the next couple of days, thanks for taking the time
Comment by Shakwei Mbindyo on March 18, 2010 at 2:44pm
+1KS. Outside of the oil peak and the environmental impact of using these fossil fuels, what about the social impact of finding oil expecially for developing economies (eg. Nigeria and now Uganda)??
Comment by Sylvain Ratelle on March 18, 2010 at 2:54pm
Hello again, sure finding oil in developping countries, in Africa for example, is a local plus in term of wealth creation and hopefully social impact, the point here is more in term of total world discoveries, Thanks
Comment by Comelia Tang on March 18, 2010 at 7:44pm
And to think we've been depleting natural resources from the earth like it was put here for our consumption. shame on us.
Comment by Sylvain Ratelle on March 18, 2010 at 11:41pm
Thank you Michelle, I fully agree, the mission this is on energy, that's why I concentrate on that, but yes, water is just as, if not even more important than oil, a subject, I suppose for the next 7 weeks,
Comment by Jane A.W. on March 19, 2010 at 1:29am
In my Alt Energy class, we learned alot about US energy consumption and production patterns... One of the interesting things is OIL/Petroleum is primarily used for transportation... So Peak oil and carbon emissions related to petroleum use are very pointedly a function (in the US anyway) of transportation.

Is that pattern similar but perhaps markedly less so in Europe? What about China - any Europeans and Chinese folks out here want to enlighten me?

One thing I want to point out is that PRICES (especially at the pump) will not be in direct relationship to, or even necessarily GOOD measure of, where we are on the Peak Oil curve. Some will no doubt (as the twits who point to cold winter days and cool summer days mistake 'weather' for climate) point to periods of decreasing pump prices to still deny that oil is being used up - they will point to 'new' discoveries and oil sands and oil shale etc.

But pump prices will have a lot to do with speculation, as well as temporary shifts in the balances between production and demand. Even as the true recoverable supply of oil drops and demand increases - there will be times when pump prices will drop when production temporarily surges past expected demand.

Lets work to make me an Alarmist - and make the market decrease the demand for oil in transportation. Do me a solid favor - heh heh - save it for those of us up here were combustion is absolutely freezin' freakin' necessary.
Comment by Sylvain Ratelle on March 19, 2010 at 1:39am
Thanks Jane Ann, I agree that speculation can have a temporary effect, even large, on prices, but the long term secular trend will reflect the supply and demand balance.
Comment by Jane A.W. on March 19, 2010 at 2:09am
Yup... weather vs. climate
Comment by Colin Murphy on March 20, 2010 at 12:11am
Peak oil is fortunately or unfortunately, not a particularly real threat. Hubbert's curve describes oil production from the resources that were available for extraction decades ago. Now, we are drilling deeper, in more extreme conditions than ever before. We're also learning how to exploit "unconventional" petroleum sources such as tar-sands oil, shale oil, coal-seam gas and methane hydrate. The natural gas might not be an entirely bad thing, since it is a lower carbon alternative to coal and oil. Ultimately, though, we can't expect that peak oil will either force us onto renewables (best case) or destroy our economy (worst case).

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