Imagine an event cluster of fatalities in central Lagos, Nigeria, from a previously unidentified airborne virus. The ratio of fatalities to nonfatalities is much higher than typical with a virus this type. Serveral things are possible -
1) The virus is more aggressive and more deadly than is typical, suggesting that this event cluster is an early signal of a pandemic.
2) The virus may actually be mild, with many cases unreported. This skews the data, making it look as if the death rate is higher than typical, when in fact it is typical or perhaps milder than usual.
The problem with a pandemic outbreak is that mitigation steps need to be well underway before it is known scientifically which of the two scenarios above is most accurate.
The most desirable outcome would be to find a strategy that works in either scenario. This would mean educating the public, in particular first responders, quickly and completely without causing a panic.
Announcements to the public must be cautious and must emphasize the possibility that things are better than they seem, given at the same time that actions must reflect the possibility that they’re worse than they seem.
It seems to me that that the most workable strategy to raise awareness without causing a panic would be to publish an abundance of information. With new social networking platforms and broadcast channels Health organizations and first responders can publish their own information and have an influence on how the media covers the story. Journalists have market pressure to cover stories with the old "if it bleeds, it leads" mentality. But if there is an abundance of information available to the public, including charts, maps and historical context, this should have a calming effect on the general public and at the same time a motivating effect on first responders who are best positioned to act effectively in the face of an unfolding catastrophe.
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