"I love that you've brought this to attention. An extensive database of uncommon but resistant and hardy plants/foods could be developed and organized by climate. Ease of growth and processing should also be taken in to account. I will try to…"
A crash course in changing the world.
Climate Change- Food Production- What does it mean?
From the IPCC and US EPA : http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/agriculture.html
"Agriculture in the U.S. and other industrialized countries is expected to be less vulnerable to climate change than agriculture in developing nations, especially in the tropics, where farmers may have a limited
ability to adapt. In addition, the effects of climate change on U.S.
and world agriculture will depend not only on changing climate
conditions, but will also depend on the agricultural sector's ability
to adapt through future changes in technology, changes in demand for
food, and environmental conditions, such as water availability and soil
quality. Management practices, the opportunity to switch management and
crop selection from season to season, and technology can help the
agricultural sector cope with and adapt to climatic variability and
change.Agriculture in the U.S. and other industrialized countries is expected
to be less vulnerable to climate change than agriculture in developing
nations, especially in the tropics, where farmers may have a limited
ability to adapt. In addition, the effects of climate change on U.S.
and world agriculture will depend not only on changing climate
conditions, but will also depend on the agricultural sector's ability
to adapt through future changes in technology, changes in demand for
food, and environmental conditions, such as water availability and soil
quality. Management practices, the opportunity to switch management and
crop selection from season to season, and technology can help the
agricultural sector cope with and adapt to climatic variability and
change."
This means that the less developed the nation, the more likely farmers will experience a severe impact from climate change- leading to an increase of famine in local undeveloped regions over time. Without availability and adaptability, countries may go more into crisis than before.
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply Data Sets from a Major Crop
Modeling Study
From: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/giss_crop_study/
Ran model scenarios describing food production changes with environmental changes. Very academic, but let me try and demystify it a little bit. They made senarios based off levels of Carbon Diaoxide, region of the world and level of adaptation (how much farmer's changed). You can go and choose a region (Africa, low importers) for example, and the senario : 2020- with projected CO2 increase means yeilds in the following countries Benin, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Sudan, Togo, and Uganda in africa will drop in the following way:
Cool huh? So, in 2020 there will be a drop of about 4% for grains ( like wheat) . You can run all kinds of different senarios there. Its a pretty depressing picture of what can happen! Yikes!
Here is a table of four senario's in for the same region in africa compared:
Interesting enough If you look at scenario's for Japan, they show crop increases. But, this study does not take into account some factors, which they discuss in the article... including population growth.
Hope this information is helpful!
"Agriculture in the U.S. and other industrialized countries is expected to be less vulnerable to climate change than agriculture in developing nations, especially in the tropics, where farmers may have a limited
ability to adapt. In addition, the effects of climate change on U.S.
and world agriculture will depend not only on changing climate
conditions, but will also depend on the agricultural sector's ability
to adapt through future changes in technology, changes in demand for
food, and environmental conditions, such as water availability and soil
quality. Management practices, the opportunity to switch management and
crop selection from season to season, and technology can help the
agricultural sector cope with and adapt to climatic variability and
change.Agriculture in the U.S. and other industrialized countries is expected
to be less vulnerable to climate change than agriculture in developing
nations, especially in the tropics, where farmers may have a limited
ability to adapt. In addition, the effects of climate change on U.S.
and world agriculture will depend not only on changing climate
conditions, but will also depend on the agricultural sector's ability
to adapt through future changes in technology, changes in demand for
food, and environmental conditions, such as water availability and soil
quality. Management practices, the opportunity to switch management and
crop selection from season to season, and technology can help the
agricultural sector cope with and adapt to climatic variability and
change."
This means that the less developed the nation, the more likely farmers will experience a severe impact from climate change- leading to an increase of famine in local undeveloped regions over time. Without availability and adaptability, countries may go more into crisis than before.
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply Data Sets from a Major Crop
Modeling Study
From: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/giss_crop_study/
Ran model scenarios describing food production changes with environmental changes. Very academic, but let me try and demystify it a little bit. They made senarios based off levels of Carbon Diaoxide, region of the world and level of adaptation (how much farmer's changed). You can go and choose a region (Africa, low importers) for example, and the senario : 2020- with projected CO2 increase means yeilds in the following countries Benin, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Sudan, Togo, and Uganda in africa will drop in the following way:
| Scenarios | ||||||
| CM3-A#2 = Year 2020, CO2 effects (475 ppm), Level 1 adaptation | ||||||
Cool huh? So, in 2020 there will be a drop of about 4% for grains ( like wheat) . You can run all kinds of different senarios there. Its a pretty depressing picture of what can happen! Yikes!
Here is a table of four senario's in for the same region in africa compared:
| Scenarios | ||||||
| GISS#3 = Equilibrium scenario, CO2 effects (555 ppm), Level 1 adapt... | ||||||
| GFDL#2 = Equilibrium scenario, CO2 effects (555 ppm), No adaptation | ||||||
| UKMO#3 = Equilibrium scenario, CO2 effects (555 ppm), Level 1 adapt... | ||||||
| CM3-A#2 = Year 2020, CO2 effects (475 ppm), Level 1 adaptation |
Interesting enough If you look at scenario's for Japan, they show crop increases. But, this study does not take into account some factors, which they discuss in the article... including population growth.
Hope this information is helpful!
Views: 55
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Comment by Brandon Spearman on March 6, 2010 at 10:00pm
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This seems like a really interesting study Crystal! Hopefully it'll get people to realize climate change is real and see how overpopulation is affecting the world.
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Comment by The Garden Earth Project on March 6, 2010 at 10:08pm
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It is a good idea to learn the fine art of establishing micro-climates, and also to experiment with introducing edible, medicinal and otherwise useful plant species into new regions. Also, encouraging dense botanical growth and keeping bare ground covered to retain moisture and nutrients in the soil as well as establishing habitat for small critters and microorganisms.
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Comment by William Purves on March 6, 2010 at 10:12pm
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Crystal, Nice work on finding those sites and information. I think it will be useful as we move forward.
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Comment by Bongumusa on March 7, 2010 at 12:26pm
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It is short but straightforward points. It is clear and understandable. Last year, with my group in Rural Development practices, we were discussing Global Warming and Climate Change. Your summary is excellent and base on facts. I really enjoy it.
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Comment by Hannah Kohn on March 7, 2010 at 1:52pm
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Very well organized, I learned a lot from reading it. Great Job.
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Comment by John D. Boyden on March 7, 2010 at 5:55pm
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And now we have new concerns on Methane release in the artic area that may increase the greenhouse effect. The world faces grave situations. Will we wait until it is even more desperate than now? Will we wait too long? Or is NOW the time to act? lol obviously now is better than later! +1 knowlege share
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