"I love that you've brought this to attention. An extensive database of uncommon but resistant and hardy plants/foods could be developed and organized by climate. Ease of growth and processing should also be taken in to account. I will try to…"
A crash course in changing the world.
The GREAT Fuel Doomsday Debate
As I have shared in a previous blog, I came into Mission 3 with little information on the global energy crisis. I have spent the past couple of days bringing myself up to speed and what I have read so far has totally scared me. Energy resources are depleting at a rate much faster than the mother Earth can replace. So, if 2005 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2030 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2030 will be both much approximately twice that in 1980 and much more industrialized (read oil-dependent) than it was in 1980.
Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil. Big deal I hear many people say – if fuel prices get high I will just drive less or better yet, drive a hybrid car.
But, if you are focusing solely on the price at the pump, buying a hybrid car, or getting some of those energy efficient light bulbs, you are not seeing the bigger picture. In addition to transportation, water, modern medicine, plastics, computers and all high-tech devices, mass quantities of oil are required for food production. Here are some interesting facts:
• Cultivating one hectare of maize in the United States requires 40 litres of petrol and 75 litres of diesel.
• Pesticides and agro-chemicals are made from oil
• Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is made from natural gas, which is also peaking in the near future.
• Most farming implements such as tractors and trailers are constructed and powered using oil-derived fuels.
• Food storage systems such as refrigerators are manufactured in oil-powered plants, distributed using oil-powered transportation networks and usually run on electricity, which most often comes from natural gas or coal. Like oil and natural gas, coal too is peaking in the near future.
• In the US, the average piece of food is transported almost 1,500 miles before it gets to your plate.
• In Canada, the average piece of food is transported 5,000 miles from where it is produced to where it is consumed.
But what about alternative energy systems like solar panels hydrogen fuel cells, biodiesel production facilities, nuclear power plants, wind turbines etc I hear you ask. Well these are manufactured using petroleum and petroleum derived resources. Most of the feedstock (soybeans, corn) for biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol are grown using the high-tech, oil-powered industrial methods of agriculture. In short, the so called "alternatives" to oil are actually "derivatives" of oil.
Much of the research I have read suggests that issue is not so much “fuel running out” as much as it is “not having enough” to keep our economies running. It seems that without Civilization as we know is coming to an end soon.
All this sounds like a doomsday cult prediction to me so my question to you all is – IS THIS FACT OR FICTION?
Views: 114
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Comment by Patricio Buenrostro-Gilhuys on March 22, 2010 at 4:29pm
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I think it´s a combination of real oil scarcity, oil companies manipulating their numbers so they can sell oil at a higher price and national oil companies hoarding reserves. All of this = Peak Oil. I think the only way out is a combination of all the renewable energies. High level radioactive waste remains 300 years radioactive and I think that´s 300 too many.
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Comment by Samuel Freilich on March 22, 2010 at 5:59pm
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> i'm sure there's oil in outer space in nearby planets
Oil is energy-dense, but its not that energy dense. Schemes that require more energy in than out are not useful. Maybe we'll invent something that bypa**** the laws of thermodynamics, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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Comment by Michael Texeira on March 22, 2010 at 6:59pm
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Definitely civilization as we know it is coming to an end. This is rather a good thing for every species on the planet other than us...and probably for us as well. Fuel is merely stored sunlight, and we've been living off of borrowed sunlight for a long time. With this crisis hitting now, in conjunction with climate change, we have the exact conditions necessary to promote a restructuring of our economic system.
http://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates.html
watch this to see a beautiful energy solution which uses the byproduct of previous energy production as the new fuel. not really the long-term solution, but could be used to deplete the existing waste and create enough energy to invest heavily into research for long-term solutions.
I disagree with comments about wind power...its highly unreliable and takes up quite a bit of space which could be used to grow food or be let fallow for nature to reclaim...it requires cleared land (not filled with trees) to be really effective...and we really REALLY need more trees right now...
the economic system needs to be rethought entirely before change will really happen. people need to understand that a tree provides more value converting CO2 to O2, giving habitable space to other species, managing soil drainage and preventing widespread erosion...than it does as a table, a house, paper, or whatever else. true value and true cost will need to come online soon, or I'm reasonably sure that more than 50% of the population of the world (across all species) will not survive the century. this is optimistic numbers. no worries though...life existed before us and will after us....every species must go extinct eventually. much love. be at peace.
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about the prior post...consider this...
we might all die no matter what we do...climate change might be part of a larger cycle out of our hands....
what can we do in order to make the earth a more life affirming place in the meantime, so that, regardless of whether we survive...we create conditions where future life will thrive? I think that finding useful ways of getting rid of as much waste/landfills/toxic messes, as possible is a good start.
http://dir.salon.com/story/tech/feature/2002/11/25/mushrooms/index....
this is lovely...its likely mushrooms which separated us from apes to begin with ;)
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I don't want us to survive or go extinct. My consciousness was not born on this planet and it will not die here. What I want is for humanity to live well, with love and consideration for all living things, even the non-human. Life may very well adapt to the circ**stances we have created, but most life-forms cannot exist stably in an environment where radiation and toxicity is the norm. Various processes for biological life require various circ**stances. Mostly the focus for me is compassion for all non-human species as well, since it was anthrocentrism which got us all in this problem, and I very much doubt it will get us out.
Peace
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Comment by cattavery on March 22, 2010 at 9:11pm
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basically the large scale petrochemical monocropping failed as a way to feed the world. Its important to think about local food production, diversity of food sources and plants and animals, habitat and overall ecosystem interactions. Nature is not a machine that you simply wind up and pour gasoline into. There are many grave problems with the current situation however the land itself can recover and we still have time to maintain what diversity we have. We need to teach more people how to be naturalists and grow trees and habitat and restore agricultural bounty. Along with that we need to consider the supply line infrastructure and how cold chain delivery and long term shipping affect food security as well as power issues.
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Comment by Oliver Smith on March 22, 2010 at 10:41pm
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My desktop computer draws 500W the wh*** time it is on. My mobile phone draws 5W whilst it is charging, then uses nothing for three days. My mobile phone (Nokia E90) has similar functionality and uses 1% of the power.
We waste a VAST amount of power - and that we can cut back a LOT without devolving back to throwing stones at each other. Rather than looking at the "civilisation" we'd lose, let's look at the "civilisation" we'd keep:
Specifically heat (cooking and central heating), transport, communication, then take a look at manufacturing. All else is expendable.
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Comment by Iyamuremye Jean de Dieu on March 24, 2010 at 5:40pm
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Thanx Shakwei Mbindyo, reading is a source knowledge. congratulations!
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Comment by Hayden Darrell Linder on March 26, 2010 at 3:16pm
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Agent Shakwei, what were you thinking with this on?! I step away from your posts for a few days and you just go crazy!
Is it true?
Kind of. But as you have read there are a lot of factors.
Oil companies:
Can't get the price of their product much lower than it is now.
Have huge fields of untapped product all over North America.
have a customer base who can no longer afford to buy their product.
Their customers, us:
Live in a world where the money keeps getting less and less.
Need fuel that we can afford.
Tend to be finding other fuels and means to get our daily needs met.
Leaving out a total economic collapse of the world banking system, which seems to be about 5 years away, what is most likely to happen is what we have seen in the past with the coal industry.
At one time coal was the major commodity for any country. Now, it is still in use but not anywhere near where it was in it's prime 100 years ago. I think the same thing will happen with oil. More of us will continue to convert our energy consumption to cheaper means and there will be less demand for oil. Eventually the oil companies, who cannot get the price any lower will be forced to find an alternative to get that price down in order to lure customers back to their product. To do that the only option they have is to tap those virgin fields in Canada and the United States. This will not save their industry but it will allow oil to limp along as a viable energy source for another 100 years while the majority of us move on to more legitimate energy sources.
Baring a complete economic collapse of course.
God bless:)
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Comment by Thomas Pinkerton on March 26, 2010 at 3:37pm
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"i'm sure there's oil in outer space in nearby planets"
Since fossil fuels are condensed bodies of living things... I doubt it. We haven't found carbon-rich atmospheres elsewhere, so we're not going to find oil, there.
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